The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for eight days. Marine insurers — Lloyd’s and the rest — refuse, rightfully so, to cover any vessel attempting to transit it. That’s not a disruption. That’s a halt in oil and gas trade in the Persian gulf. And the consequences are not theoretical.
Start with oil. Not merely as a source of fuel, but as one the foundational feedstock of modern civilization. The world’s refineries were designed, built and calibrated around Persian Gulf crude — a historical standard dating to the late 19th century. Substituting other crude grades isn’t a switch you flip; it requires fluid cracking catalysts, other costly imputs and full refining process recalibration. The near-total halt of Gulf oil supply means severe, guaranteed inflation across every product derived from refining — which is to say, nearly everything.
