Below is the sum-up in English of this podcast in French.
The clowns are back in town, would sing Thin Lizzy if the band were still active.
Every time the United States and Israel ignite another war, the same tired parade marches out: on 24/7 news channels, ignorant journalists racing against incompetent ‘experts’ who have been wrong about everything—from Ukraine to the Middle East—and yet still demand we consider them oracles.
The Middle East isn’t some neat European theater of war. It’s a hydra-headed mess of overlapping conflicts. Yet Washington and Tel Aviv, drunk on their own arrogance, thought decapitating the regime by assassinating Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei—along with dozens of senior clerics and officials—would make Iran collapse.
They were dead wrong.
Iran still stands. And it’s hitting back—hard.
Let’s get one thing straight: Iran is not a theocracy run by mullahs in a vacuum. It has a president elected by universal suffrage, a government accountable to a unicameral parliament (the Majlis), and elected legislators. The Majlis dates back to 1905—long before the 1979 Revolution.
Khamenei was never head of state; that role belongs to the elected president of the Islamic Republic.
Killing a few dozen people, even the top cleric, does not topple institutions built on political—not purely religious—foundations.
And in Shia Islam—the faith of martyrs since Karbala—what did they expect? National unity? Rally-around-the-flag? Exactly what we’re witnessing: most Iranians closing ranks behind their country and its insitutions, including the ICRG.
Those much-hyped “decapitation strikes” achieved nothing of the sort. Iran’s retaliation unfolded precisely as Tehran promised: direct hits on Israel and on every U.S. regional base used to launch the initial assault.
The Americans and Israelis, as usual, underestimated their opponent. They never learn.
To track where this disaster is headed, watch two key indicators.
Short-term: Depleted stocks of anti-air missiles held by the United States, Israel, and Gulf monarchies hosting American bases. Supplies are already razor-thin. The Pentagon reportedly warned Trump against this adventure because they couldn’t sustain more than a few weeks. That’s why he keeps talking about a “four-week war.”
Remember the 12-day war? Israel barely lasted that long—even with Gulf states feeding Patriot missiles to intercept Iranian ballistic and drone salvos.
Now, after Iran has deliberately struck those same Gulf bases, no Arab regime will risk handing over interceptors. Tehran knows its ballistic and drone arsenals outmatch the other side’s defenses. All Iran has to do is absorb damage, wait for the interceptors to run dry, then—if needed—sink a few U.S. ships and finish flattening Israel.
Medium-term (3–6 months): Oil and gas prices.
Brent crude at $100 means at least $3/gallon gas in the U.S.—political suicide for Trump six months before midterms.
We’ve already seen European LNG prices double after Qatar halted production to protect its facilities from Iranian strikes.
For the Trump administration, spiking fuel costs spell electoral doom.
For Europe, Japan, Korea, Australia, and New Zealand, it’s an economic death sentence—no reindustrialization, no growth, just stagnation or worse.
Yet here we are, with attempts to drag Europe - that is the UK, Germany and France - into a war that isn’t ours—one that’s already lost.
The single strategic gravity point of this entire illegal aggression (a blatant violation of international law and even U.S. statutes) is transparent: to shield a war criminal—Benjamin Netanyahu—from corruption trials and prison.
The empire’s hubris is on full display once again. Iran isn’t folding. It’s enduring, retaliating, and waiting for the West’s finite munitions and political will to collapse under the weight of reality.
The circus may be loud, but the show is ending badly—for everyone but the architects who never pay the price.
